Saturday, May 10, 2008

Are we really running out of oil


The short answer is yes, the US is running out of oil. Note the graph on proven oil reserves, and the its decline. We now have just as much oil that we had in the 1940, with just a few more cars on the highway. The spike around 1970 must be Prudhoe bay, but I did not verify that. Oil production at Prudhoe Bay has been declining since 1989 [peak oil]

Oil consumption increases 2% a year, so to break even you need to find at least 2% more oil each year. The graph indicates the reverse as proven oil reserves are decreasing as we consume it faster than we discover it. The previous post showed a chart of US production which is different that proven reserves [oil in the ground].

Related posts; Why we import oil, Peak oil, Why gas costs so much.

1 comment:

Leroy said...

I don't believe that chart takes into the Jack 2 oil well out in the Gulf of Mexico, that produce oil in 2006. Because it was only one test drill the estimates range from 3 to 15 billion barrels of oil.

Not cheap oil at 28,000 feet under 7,000 feet of water. And remember we use 20,000,000 barrels a day ~ in just one day.

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